Global Pulse #2: Week of March 2–9, 2025
Global Pulse #2: Week of March 2–9, 2025
Global Economic News
Trade Wars and Tariffs Take a Toll
President Donald Trump’s tariffs—slapped on Mexico, Canada, and China starting March 4—ignited a firestorm of economic uncertainty. The U.S. targeted 25% duties on Mexican and Canadian goods and upped the ante with China, prompting Beijing to counter with 10%-15% tariffs on U.S. imports effective March 10.
Canada’s economy, already limping with just 1,100 jobs added in February and unemployment stuck at 6.6%, now faces a potential export crisis.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta slashed its U.S. GDP forecast to a 2.8% decline, citing tariff fallout. China, meanwhile, rolled out aggressive stimulus—think infrastructure spending and tax breaks—to shield itself from what its state media called “unprecedented external shocks.”
The Eurozone, surprisingly resilient, posted robust Q4 growth, while Japan signaled a cautious end to decades of deflation with rising consumer prices.
Ukraine’s Economic Edge Dulled
The Trump-Ukraine rift added another layer of economic strain. With U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing halted, Ukraine’s war-torn economy—already reliant on foreign support—teeters on the brink. The Independent reported that Russia has seized the moment, hammering Ukrainian infrastructure as U.S. assistance dries up.
Kyiv’s trade routes, critical for grain exports, are under threat, potentially spiking global food prices. Economists warn that Trump’s hardball tactics—tying aid to a minerals deal—could push Ukraine into a deeper fiscal hole, forcing it to lean harder on European allies or unconventional funding like cryptocurrency (more on that later).
If the conflict escalates, ripple effects could hit Eastern European markets, already jittery from trade war pressures. Trump’s tariff flip-flop—he briefly lifted duties on Canada and Mexico after backlash—offers little comfort; analysts say prolonged uncertainty could still drag North America into recession.
Global Political News
Global Tensions Flare
Political fault lines widened this week. In Canada, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney stepped into the spotlight, positioning himself as a steady hand amid trade strife and a looming federal election. Trump’s March 4 address to Congress, dubbed “Renewal of the American Dream,” landed with a thud—markets tanked, and critics panned it as vague posturing.
His deportation crackdown escalated, targeting foreign students tied to pro-Palestinian campus protests; Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian student at Rutgers, became a high-profile detainee.
China’s tariff retaliation sharpened the U.S.-China divide, while El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele thumbed his nose at the IMF, vowing to make Bitcoin a cornerstone of his economy.
Trump-Ukraine: A Diplomatic Trainwreck
The Trump-Ukraine saga stole the spotlight—and not in a good way. After a fiery Oval Office showdown, Trump froze military aid and intelligence sharing, accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being “ungrateful” and “too weak to negotiate peace.
Russia pounced, ramping up drone and missile strikes—The New York Times reported a 30% spike in attacks since the intelligence cutoff. Trump doubled down, praising Putin as a “strong leader doing what’s necessary,” a stance that drew fire from allies. Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace called it “a betrayal of freedom,” warning that Trump’s pivot risks “suffocating Ukraine’s resistance.”
Zelenskyy, scrambling to salvage the relationship, hinted at concessions ahead of U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s demands are clear: a lucrative minerals deal (think lithium and rare earths) and a commitment from Kyiv to bend on territorial disputes. Ukrainian officials privately fumed, with one X user quoting a source saying, “Trump treats us like a business negotiation, not a partner.”
Europe’s on edge—Germany and France boosted aid pledges, fearing a U.S. tilt toward Moscow. Trump’s transactional approach might stem from his campaign’s pro-Russia leanings, though evidence remains circumstantial. Either way, this rupture has allies rethinking NATO’s cohesion and the U.S.’s role as a global anchor.
Bitcoin & Crypto News
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride
Cryptocurrency markets mirrored the week’s chaos. Trump’s March 7 executive order established a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve using seized assets. No direct purchases were announced, fueling skepticism; Peter Schiff dubbed it a “gimmick to pump and dump.”
The White House Crypto Summit kicked off, aiming to shape policy, while states doubled down: Texas pushed its B1 Bill to integrate Bitcoin into state finance, and Utah’s HB230 passed, though it skipped a reserve fund. Prices cratered further to $83,700 as tariff fears hit, dragging Ethereum (-20%), Solana (-25%), and XRP (-22%) down with it. Cardano defied gravity, soaring 60% on network upgrades. MicroStrategy, unfazed, scooped up 20,356 BTC for $2 billion, pushing its stash past 250,000 coins. The crypto market cap shed 10.54%, landing at $2.76 trillion.
Ukraine’s Crypto Lifeline
Ukraine’s crypto story got louder amid the U.S. aid freeze. Kyiv has leaned on Bitcoin and Ethereum donations—over $200 million since 2022, per some estimates—to fund everything from drones to medical supplies.
Bitcoin’s volatility—down 8% this week alone—makes it a shaky lifeline. Still, Ukraine’s pushing the envelope, exploring blockchain to bypass sanctions-hit banks.
Trump’s Bitcoin reserve move sparked debate: could it indirectly bolster Ukraine’s efforts, or is it just domestic posturing? For now, Kyiv’s crypto gamble underscores its desperation—and ingenuity.
Market Movements
Tariffs Trigger a Sell-Off
Markets took a beating as Trump’s tariff threats turned real. The Dow plummeted nearly 700 points on March 4, its worst day since the post-election rally fizzled. The S&P 500 breached its 125-day moving average, wiping out 2025 gains, while Wall Street futures sank 3%.
The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to its highest level this year. Safe-havens shone: the yen gained 2%, the Swiss franc hit a six-month peak, and gold climbed 2% to $2,905/oz.
Oil, meanwhile, slumped to $68.45/barrel as demand fears outweighed geopolitical risks. Tech and AI stocks—Nvidia, Super Micro Computer—stumbled on margin calls, and Indian IT giants like TechM and Wipro shed up to 5%. Canada’s TSX logged its ugliest weekly drop of 2025, down 4%, despite a Friday bounce.
Ukraine’s Shadow Looms Large
The Trump-Ukraine fallout jolted markets further. Russia’s intensified attacks—enabled by the U.S. intelligence blackout—rattled energy traders; natural gas futures ticked up 3% as Europe braced for supply squeezes.
Defense stocks like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon jumped 5%, betting on a prolonged conflict. European indices—Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40—slid 2% as leaders mulled bigger aid packages for Kyiv. Emerging markets felt the heat too; Poland’s WIG index fell 3% on border security fears.
Artificial Intelligence News
AI’s Breakneck Pace
AI breakthroughs piled up despite the global mess. Google launched Gemini 2.0 on March 5, powering AI Overviews and testing an “AI Mode” search to fend off Perplexity and ChatGPT. Microsoft unveiled in-house reasoning models, taking aim at OpenAI’s dominance, while Anthropic’s $3.5 billion Series E round on March 3 pegged its valuation at $61.5 billion. China’s DeepSeek model triggered U.S. alarm—lawmakers floated a ban from government devices, citing espionage risks.
Melbourne’s Cortical Labs debuted a neuron-silicon hybrid computer on March 6, eyeing drug discovery, while Nature flagged AI’s soaring energy footprint—data centers now rival small nations in power use. NVIDIA’s GTC 2025, slated for March 17, teased next-gen AI chips.
AI in the Ukraine Crucible
The Trump-Ukraine mess spotlighted AI’s military stakes. With U.S. intelligence sharing on ice, Ukraine’s reportedly leaning on AI-driven analytics to track Russian moves—think drone swarms and satellite pattern recognition.
Europe’s watching closely—France and the UK are reportedly fast-tracking AI defense projects, fearing a capability gap. Trump’s silence on AI strategy hasn’t helped; critics say he’s ceding ground to rivals like China, whose DeepSeek could tip the scales in hybrid warfare. For now, AI’s a quiet wildcard in this geopolitical poker game.
The Pulse
This week was a pressure cooker—trade wars colliding with political brinkmanship, Bitcoin’s rollercoaster, and AI’s relentless march. The Trump-Ukraine standoff stands out: a volatile mix of ego, strategy, and betrayal that’s testing global fault lines. Tariffs are shaking markets, but the real story might be in Kyiv, where survival hangs by a thread. What’s next—recession, escalation, or both? Email me with your take!
Until next Sunday,
Werner Mouton, CGMA
Global Pulse