Notebook
Mini essays and margin notes on economics, markets, politics, power, books, documents, and the machinery beneath events.
The Machine and the Commons
AI can widen access to knowledge while enclosing its ownership. The same machine that helps people understand the world can also concentrate the infrastructure through which understanding is produced today.
The Worker in the Calculation
The worker is always partly in the way of the calculation. Firms need labour, but they also need to discipline, cheapen, replace, monitor, or automate it wherever possible when profitable.
The Fingerprints of Shortage
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the oil crisis simply disappears. It means the crisis changes shape.
The Way We Are Governed Enters the Day
Good and bad government do not remain abstract. They enter the day through prices, laws, wages, schools, hospitals, streets, bills, and the private life we think is separate.
Oil, Hormuz, and the price of reopening
Oil fell because markets began pricing a reopened Strait of Hormuz, not peace: a temporary bargain marked down interruption risk while leaving the deeper security structure intact.
Inflation, Cash and Hormuz
Inflation, Hormuz, and the cash boom are part of the same signal: when prices, geopolitics, and risk collide, cash becomes caution.
War Enters the Balance Sheet
Energy shocks from war become balance‑sheet and budget problems rather than battlefields. World Bank downgrades mark long‑term damage. Rich countries absorb costs while poorer ones face deficits and austerity.
The License as Chokepoint
Tightening export licences turned Chinese battery‑metal supplies into chokepoints. The note shows how the licence itself becomes the weapon, making critical minerals unobtainable and highlighting the urgency of diversification.
The Combatant as Mediator
Trump’s claim to mediate the Iran‑Israel war is mocked: the United States is a combatant, conducting strikes and widening the conflict. Combatants cannot mediate; their rhetoric conceals their role.
When Productive Capacity Becomes Security Strategy
The Pentagon’s list of Chinese military companies now includes tech and EV firms, showing productive capacity itself is being treated as a security target and blurring commercial with military.
Trump cuts will kill
Trump’s planned cuts to USAID, PEPFAR and Medicaid will translate into malaria, HIV and maternal deaths. Bureaucratic talk of “efficiency” masks the reality: slashing aid will kill people.
The War in the Sentence
Washington insists the Iran war is over even as Hormuz remains threatened and oil spikes. The note contrasts this declaration of peace with realities in shipping lanes and markets.
When a Majority Feels Itself Becoming a Minority
Census projections show whites will be a minority. Status‑loss fuels anti‑democratic sentiment and immigration hardliners, raising the question: what happens when a majority feels itself becoming a minority?
Oil and the Cost of Passage
After threats in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spiked. The note says the real story is the cost of passage—narrow waterways, naval power, insurance and risk—not simply the price.
Marx and the spectre.
The note recalls Marx’s observation that “Communist” began as a smear and concludes that when labels like “woke” or “fascist” silence debate, the answer is to publish openly.
Trump and Iran
The note exposes the hollowness of Trump’s “ceasefire” claim: U.S. forces bombed a girls’ school, blockaded ports and issued threats; there is no ceasefire, only rebranded war.
The Pope’s Words
The note praises Pope Francis’ Cameroon speech condemning those who use religion to justify war. Contrasting billions spent on bombs with scarce healing funds, he called for conscience and care.
The American project.
The note argues the American project is fracturing; Trump widened cracks but successors will exploit them. Institutions decay and only patient, long‑term work, not quick fixes, can repair the tear.