Essays
Politics, economics, culture, ideas, technology, and the world at large. At times, the personal.
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The Shape of Resilience in a Slowing World
The present global economy advances not through speed but through balance. Growth persists, yet it is uneven and carried by different engines in different regions. Prices cool in some blocs and firm in others. Policy hesitates. Markets lean toward a soft landing but hedge against disappointment. Beneath these mixed signals is a structure: tradable-goods disinflation, services stickiness, and financing conditions shaped by deficits and demographic shifts rather than short-term interest rates.
The Limits of GDP Per Capita
GDP per capita tempts policymakers because it is clean, comparable, and frequent. It looks like a single verdict on living standards. It is not one.
Trump’s Rhetoric After the Kirk Killing
Donald Trump’s response to the killing of Charlie Kirk demonstrates how political violence can be reframed as partisan accusation. Before investigators had identified a suspect or established a motive, Trump declared the “radical left” responsible. He argued that progressives who compared conservative figures to Nazis had created a climate in which violence became likely. He then referred to “these terrorists.” The progression from political rhetoric to the language of terrorism illustrates how partisan categories are fused with terms normally reserved for organized violence.
Rethinking Political Definitions in 2025
In 2025 we must rethink political definitions, because old labels no longer match the coalitions and incentives now acting under them, and the mismatch skews judgment, obscures accountability, and distorts how citizens read conflict. Clear terms enable clear judgment.
Trump’s Economic Plan: Low Rates, Broad Tariffs, and Top-Heavy Tax Cuts
The plan combines three main elements. Interest rates are kept low. Tariffs are imposed broadly. Tax cuts are concentrated at the top. These policies interact in predictable ways. They ease federal debt service, raise the price of traded goods, and shift after-tax gains toward higher-income households. Each element reinforces the others. The result is a coherent economic strategy, but one with clear distributional costs.
The Politics Beneath the AI Race
The rivalry between the United States and China over artificial intelligence is often described as a contest of speed and ingenuity. Commentators count patents, compare benchmarks, and track investment flows.
How Law Prices Politics
The rule of law is often invoked as a shield against power. Yet the paradox is that law itself generates the conditions in which power moves most freely. To grasp this, one must set aside the familiar scene of diplomats arguing at the United Nations or judges issuing unenforceable rulings from The Hague. Those are the most visible but least effective parts of the system.
Export Controls, Trade Deals, and the Rise of Sovereign AI
The United States put a price on national security and called it a fee. A 15 percent export duty was floated on shipments of technology that had been banned months earlier. At the same time, officials threatened sweeping tariffs on semiconductors, on goods that contain them, and even on the tools that make chips; and they reopened sales of Nvidia’s H20 to China in the midst of tense bargaining over rare earths. Reports that summer described these moves in detail, showing how controls—once insulated from bargaining—were folded into trade talks. In a matter of months, national-security rules had become negotiable.
Why Robotaxis?
Robotaxis arise from a clear industrial logic. Ride-hailing firms depend on labor, and labor is costly. Automation removes that cost. The driver is the largest recurring expense in each trip. To strip it out is to move closer to profit. For technology suppliers, fleets of robotaxis offer more than revenue.
The AI‑Dividend State
Advanced artificial intelligence forces a clear institutional choice. For two centuries, wages tied survival to employment and made the job the main gateway into the economy and society. That relation is weakening.
Competition Policy and Growth in the European Union
The European Union’s competition policy is often portrayed as a brake on growth, as if fines and rules designed to curb the power of large firms inevitably constrain scale. This view mistakes the relation between enforcement and growth.
Reading Noam Chomsky’s “America in Decline” (2011)
Chomsky wrote in 2011 against the background of the debt‑ceiling standoff. He framed “decline” as a long process rather than a sudden break. He tied it to domestic choices. He stressed power, not mood.
Selective Protection and the Roots of Populism in Capitalism
Hard-right populist parties have advanced across much of the democratic world. They combine nationalist rhetoric with state activism, offering voters tangible benefits while eroding institutional checks. The result is not communism but a nationalist-statist politics that preserves private property while redistributing selectively. Its rise is best understood not as a cultural accident but as a consequence of capitalism’s own production of inequality.
Rising Yields and Fragile Debt Structures
Long-term government yields are climbing across major economies. Thirty-year benchmarks in the United States, Britain, and France have reached their highest levels in years. Ten-year yields show the same pattern. France now pays 3.5% on its ten-year debt, Germany 2.7%, Britain 4.7%, and the United States just over 4.1%. The rise is not an isolated move. It reflects a broad repricing of risk across sovereign markets.
Rising Yields Reveal the Cost of Ballooning Debt
Yields on long-term government bonds rose sharply this week. Britain’s 30-year gilt touched 5.75 percent, a level last seen nearly three decades ago.
Missiles and Barges Tilt the Taiwan Balance
The military balance around Taiwan is shifting toward Beijing. Chinese missiles threaten to cripple U.S. theater airpower at the outset of conflict. New powered barges can land heavy armor on unprepared coasts. Together, these capabilities create a sequence that begins with missile salvos against American aircraft and ends with Chinese armor supplied across a beachhead. The September parade displayed the barges, drones, and strike missiles; a detailed study in International Security explained how they would be employed and what they could achieve.
Fragmentation Beneath Stability
By most measures, the world economy has held up under strain. Global trade as a share of GDP is stable, shipping volumes remain high, and production networks continue to stretch across regions. This outward steadiness gives the impression of continuity. Yet beneath the surface, the shape of flows is changing.
The Weaponization of Technical Law Erodes Democratic Trust
Modern states enforce vast bodies of law. Much of this law regulates conduct that is technical rather than plainly harmful. Citizens face statutes written in complex language, enforced through procedures few understand. Within this structure, mistakes are inevitable. What matters is not whether errors occur, but how authorities choose to respond.
The ECB has achieved disinflation, but its success depends on wage restraint
Euro‑area inflation has returned to 2% for three consecutive months. That marks a technical victory for the European Central Bank after four years of volatility. Manufacturing sentiment sits at a 41‑month high, showing improvement in activity alongside disinflation. Yet the achievement is provisional. Whether inflation stays near target will depend on wage behavior rather than on goods prices.
Sanctions and the Fragility of Dollar Power
For more than seven decades, the U.S. dollar has sat at the center of the international financial system. Its depth, liquidity, and the credibility of U.S. institutions made it the default reserve currency and the medium through which much of global trade was conducted.